The forecast ledger

Every probability published in Numbers is recorded here the day it appears and scored the day the world answers: what was claimed, the stated probability, the outcome, the Brier contribution and the running calibration curve across all of them. The page is built from the pieces' own frontmatter, so nothing can be added, softened or removed after the fact without the change showing in the publication's history; how a probability is produced and why it is scored this way is on the method page.

No probability has been published yet; the first one will be scored here.